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CHINA: EARLY AND OFTEN
January 19, 2009
STEPHEN A. ORLINS
When our grandchildren look back at the Obama administration’s foreign policy, they will measure its success by the success of our relationship with China. No international relationship will have greater impact on the 21st century. What does this mean, though, in terms of what the new president should do immediately?
My advice to President Obama is simple: Go early and go often. You need to go early because this will help to dispel the strategic mistrust between the U.S. and China, mistrust that is the single greatest impediment to solving the problems confronting our two great nations, and the world at large. And you must go often, because this new cooperative phase in U.S.-China relations will allow us to deal more effectively with the global economic crisis, climate change, energy security, transborder pollution, pandemics, terrorism, the proliferation of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction, not to mention threats such as North Korea and Iran.
The distrust that still colors U.S.-China relations comes from decades during which the threat of military confrontation over Taiwan loomed large. But times have changed. Last March, the people of Taiwan elected a president committed to closer association with China. That set in motion forces that are promoting further economic and social integration. The Chinese government is implementing policies that will lead to reconciliation with the people of Taiwan, such as the launch last month of direct flights and shipping services.
U.S. policy in the region has not, however, adapted to this new reality. Mr. President, you can change this. On your first trip to China, you can lay out your new multilateralist foreign policy and how China fits into it. You should say unequivocally, and directly to the Chinese people, that the U.S. supports a peace agreement between mainland China and Taiwan, and that closer relations between them are in the best interests of the U.S.
This would fundamentally alter China’s perception of the U.S. and allow for progress on numerous fronts. The new atmosphere would allow for productive discussions on human rights, the successor treaty to the Kyoto accords on global warming, reduction of non-tariff barriers, and increasing China’s imports of American goods and services. Low-hanging fruit for such a visit would be commitments from China to purchase Westinghouse AP 1000 reactors for more of the 24 nuclear power plants on the drawing board (currently they have contracted for four) and to engage in joint initiatives in clean coal technology and renewable energy. All of these have the added advantage of generating the kinds of jobs we want in the United States. The sale of each reactor, for example, generates thousands of high-paying American jobs.
By going early and making it clear that not only will you go often but that you welcome China’s leadership to visit Washington more often, the leaders of the two most important countries in the 21st century will have an opportunity to build the personal relationship that is essential in dealing with global crises. While the Chinese leadership is infinitely more responsive to the will of the Chinese people than when I first went to China 30 years ago, decision making still resides in the nine-member Politburo. The president/head of the Chinese Communist Party is the most powerful. The relationship that you develop with President Hu Jintao (who will remain in office until 2012) during these bilateral visits, G8 meetings and APEC gatherings will influence the path that China takes, improve U.S.-China relations, and determine the world we leave to our children.
You have already become the kind of leader many Americans have been waiting for, someone who reminds us to ask the big questions. Robert Kennedy was fond of quoting George Bernard Shaw: “Some see things as they are and ask why; I dream things that never were and ask why not.” With a new leader here at home, we are ready to dream something new for America’s role in the world. We are beginning to believe again that we can create something new in our country and in our relationship with China. The Chinese people and the Chinese leadership eagerly await an American president who knows that the 21st century requires a changed relationship with China, and who will embrace the opportunities that will bring.
Stephen A. Orlins is president of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. He can be reached at 212-645-9677 or sorlins@ncuscr.org.
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